When Prophecy Fails

A moment of pride for me today. A few years ago, I wrote reviews of my ten favourite books. While clearing out disk space this year, I found them again and decided to share them through my profile on Amazon.co.uk.
One of the books was almost impossible to get in this country, having been published by [...]

New Sense About Science publications

The campaigning group Sense About Science continues to impress. They have recently announced three resources to promote understanding of scientific issues.

Why Evidence-Based Medicine Matters: scientific medicine is traditionally sold to the public on dry statistics, while the alternatives are promoted with testimonials that may be powerful despite being useless as evidence. This site redresses the [...]

Sum versus Average as a persuasion tool

Adverts regularly appear on TV offering a book plus toy car, or a book plus model of the solar system, for a staggering price around three hundred pounds. How do they get away with it? Well, they don’t describe it as I have. Instead of a book, you are getting dozens of issues of a [...]

Misreading conditional probability

I’ve just heard this statistic on a TV programme:
63% of 14 to 17-year-olds interviewed who’ve lost their virginity lost it under the legal age of consent [i.e. 16]
That’s actually it verbatim- I rewound and checked. Didn’t the programme-makers notice such a critical-thinking blooper?
I can tell you for free that 100% of people who 1) are [...]