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	<title>Comments for Bias and Belief</title>
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	<link>http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com</link>
	<description>Reflections and references on cognitive bias and irrationality</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 10 Nov 2009 06:02:21 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>Comment on Science shows why business is stupid by bananasandramen</title>
		<link>http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/2009/09/07/science-shows-why-business-is-stupid/#comment-99</link>
		<dc:creator>bananasandramen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Nov 2009 06:02:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/?p=185#comment-99</guid>
		<description>Here we have the fundamental problem with economics as a discipline - the formal system (rational choice theory in this case) is created first and assumed a priori to be true.

In science you don&#039;t create an abstract model first then look for instantiations that match reality, you look at reality then develop a model with predictive power. 

No instantiation of Rational Choice Theory has been demonstrated to have predictive power, which tends to indicate that the formal theory is worthless, even if it is internally consistent.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here we have the fundamental problem with economics as a discipline &#8211; the formal system (rational choice theory in this case) is created first and assumed a priori to be true.</p>
<p>In science you don&#8217;t create an abstract model first then look for instantiations that match reality, you look at reality then develop a model with predictive power. </p>
<p>No instantiation of Rational Choice Theory has been demonstrated to have predictive power, which tends to indicate that the formal theory is worthless, even if it is internally consistent.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Bias and human conflict by 4 Stupid decisions your TEFL colleagues make and why they make them</title>
		<link>http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/2008/02/02/bias-and-human-conflict/#comment-98</link>
		<dc:creator>4 Stupid decisions your TEFL colleagues make and why they make them</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Sep 2009 10:53:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/?p=19#comment-98</guid>
		<description>[...] a study conducted by Sukhwinder Shergill and colleagues at University College London, pairs of volunteers were connected to a device that [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] a study conducted by Sukhwinder Shergill and colleagues at University College London, pairs of volunteers were connected to a device that [...]</p>
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		<title>Comment on Science shows why business is stupid by michaelwebster</title>
		<link>http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/2009/09/07/science-shows-why-business-is-stupid/#comment-97</link>
		<dc:creator>michaelwebster</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Sep 2009 21:42:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/?p=185#comment-97</guid>
		<description>Martin;

Rational choice is a formal theory of choice with no particular allegiance to the empirical form an incentive takes.  That is what makes it a formal theory; various instaniations of the models may however be wrong.

But, Kohn&#039;s Punishment by Rewards is completely consistent with a rational choice model, http://www.alfiekohn.org/teaching/cheating.htm</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Martin;</p>
<p>Rational choice is a formal theory of choice with no particular allegiance to the empirical form an incentive takes.  That is what makes it a formal theory; various instaniations of the models may however be wrong.</p>
<p>But, Kohn&#8217;s Punishment by Rewards is completely consistent with a rational choice model, <a href="http://www.alfiekohn.org/teaching/cheating.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.alfiekohn.org/teaching/cheating.htm</a></p>
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		<title>Comment on Behavioural Economics Videos by Science shows why business is stupid &#171; Bias and Belief</title>
		<link>http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/2009/05/26/behavioural-economics-videos/#comment-96</link>
		<dc:creator>Science shows why business is stupid &#171; Bias and Belief</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Sep 2009 19:08:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/?p=130#comment-96</guid>
		<description>[...] 2009 by Martin Poulter   Another excellent talk from TED.com about behavioural economics (to add to those already covered on this blog). Dan Pink, a former speech writer for Al Gore, explains how a lot of business practice still [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] 2009 by Martin Poulter   Another excellent talk from TED.com about behavioural economics (to add to those already covered on this blog). Dan Pink, a former speech writer for Al Gore, explains how a lot of business practice still [...]</p>
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		<title>Comment on Book Review: Mistakes were Made (but not by Me) by Martin Poulter</title>
		<link>http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/2009/06/03/book-review-mistakes-were-made-but-not-by-me/#comment-95</link>
		<dc:creator>Martin Poulter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2009 11:35:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/?p=148#comment-95</guid>
		<description>Thanks a lot for the informative comment and the delightful username, Shelley. Yes, individual differences do matter, and there are people such as depressives who have opposite biases. A lot of bias research is done on students in prestigious universities, so there&#039;s a bias there towards people who are already in a sense successful.

However, Tavris and Aronson&#039;s point is that the people with the self-justifying/ enhancing biases are in politics, the legal system, the military and so on. They&#039;re driving the bus that we&#039;re on, so there&#039;s potentially major harm done when they won&#039;t acknowledge their role in the consequences. Cheers,</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks a lot for the informative comment and the delightful username, Shelley. Yes, individual differences do matter, and there are people such as depressives who have opposite biases. A lot of bias research is done on students in prestigious universities, so there&#8217;s a bias there towards people who are already in a sense successful.</p>
<p>However, Tavris and Aronson&#8217;s point is that the people with the self-justifying/ enhancing biases are in politics, the legal system, the military and so on. They&#8217;re driving the bus that we&#8217;re on, so there&#8217;s potentially major harm done when they won&#8217;t acknowledge their role in the consequences. Cheers,</p>
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		<title>Comment on Book Review: Mistakes were Made (but not by Me) by shelleywelly</title>
		<link>http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/2009/06/03/book-review-mistakes-were-made-but-not-by-me/#comment-94</link>
		<dc:creator>shelleywelly</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2009 07:34:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/?p=148#comment-94</guid>
		<description>Martin,

Self justification, rationalisationa nd denial are well known phenomenon in the field of counselling? It is worth noting though that there are individual differences at play here that do not seem to have been included in the book?

Not all people automatically reconstruct memories to create a positive self image. Some individuals do blame out as soon as mistakes occur but others blame themselves and can get stuck going over and over painful situations.

In personlaity tests (where tested) this trait is called neuroticism (NEO- PIR) or adjustment (Hogan&#039;s). Too much adjustment leads to self confidence and lack of reflection/ introspection. This greatly helps action orientated behanviour but impedes learning where as too little adjustment leads to self doubt and procrastination. Learning can also be impeded by too much introspection and negative self image.

This is the one personlaity area (sorry can&#039;t remember citation but will look it up if you are interested) that predicts success? If you are more confident and less likely to balme yourself you are more likely to be successful. However when confident turns to arrogance then .....I&#039;m not so sure?

Shelley</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Martin,</p>
<p>Self justification, rationalisationa nd denial are well known phenomenon in the field of counselling? It is worth noting though that there are individual differences at play here that do not seem to have been included in the book?</p>
<p>Not all people automatically reconstruct memories to create a positive self image. Some individuals do blame out as soon as mistakes occur but others blame themselves and can get stuck going over and over painful situations.</p>
<p>In personlaity tests (where tested) this trait is called neuroticism (NEO- PIR) or adjustment (Hogan&#8217;s). Too much adjustment leads to self confidence and lack of reflection/ introspection. This greatly helps action orientated behanviour but impedes learning where as too little adjustment leads to self doubt and procrastination. Learning can also be impeded by too much introspection and negative self image.</p>
<p>This is the one personlaity area (sorry can&#8217;t remember citation but will look it up if you are interested) that predicts success? If you are more confident and less likely to balme yourself you are more likely to be successful. However when confident turns to arrogance then &#8230;..I&#8217;m not so sure?</p>
<p>Shelley</p>
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		<title>Comment on What makes humans happy? by The friendship paradox &#171; Bias and Belief</title>
		<link>http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/2009/07/14/what-makes-humans-happy/#comment-93</link>
		<dc:creator>The friendship paradox &#171; Bias and Belief</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Aug 2009 18:08:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/?p=158#comment-93</guid>
		<description>[...] else now knows someone more popular than they are. This might not be good for everyone else&#8217;s happiness if social comparison is [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] else now knows someone more popular than they are. This might not be good for everyone else&#8217;s happiness if social comparison is [...]</p>
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		<title>Comment on What makes humans happy? by Martin Poulter</title>
		<link>http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/2009/07/14/what-makes-humans-happy/#comment-92</link>
		<dc:creator>Martin Poulter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Aug 2009 16:55:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/?p=158#comment-92</guid>
		<description>Just wanted to archive here a very nice comment received by email from my colleague Anne-Marie:

&quot;What a wonderful piece of work.  This is very interesting.  It debunks a lot of pre-conceived ideas and, because all our lives have really quite a lot in common, it shows a remarkable lot of issues that have shaped my life and provided similar conclusions to me through experience rather than an academic approach.  Fascinating to see so much human experience expressed in a well thought-out and executed piece of research!  Thank you for sharing this with us.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just wanted to archive here a very nice comment received by email from my colleague Anne-Marie:</p>
<p>&#8220;What a wonderful piece of work.  This is very interesting.  It debunks a lot of pre-conceived ideas and, because all our lives have really quite a lot in common, it shows a remarkable lot of issues that have shaped my life and provided similar conclusions to me through experience rather than an academic approach.  Fascinating to see so much human experience expressed in a well thought-out and executed piece of research!  Thank you for sharing this with us.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>Comment on What makes humans happy? by Martin Poulter</title>
		<link>http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/2009/07/14/what-makes-humans-happy/#comment-91</link>
		<dc:creator>Martin Poulter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 19:24:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/?p=158#comment-91</guid>
		<description>Hi Dan,
I think the difference was between re-experiencing the emotion and processing it. Recalling and introspecting a bad memory just made people feel worse, but turning it into words decreased its effect. What you describe counts as processing. The decrease probably happens because of the self-serving biases that kick in and make the bad thing seem not the subject&#039;s fault: how we turn the narrative into one in which we take the heroic role. I&#039;ll find the specific quotes from the Wilson and Gilbert books if you nudge me to.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Dan,<br />
I think the difference was between re-experiencing the emotion and processing it. Recalling and introspecting a bad memory just made people feel worse, but turning it into words decreased its effect. What you describe counts as processing. The decrease probably happens because of the self-serving biases that kick in and make the bad thing seem not the subject&#8217;s fault: how we turn the narrative into one in which we take the heroic role. I&#8217;ll find the specific quotes from the Wilson and Gilbert books if you nudge me to.</p>
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		<title>Comment on What makes humans happy? by danbri</title>
		<link>http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/2009/07/14/what-makes-humans-happy/#comment-90</link>
		<dc:creator>danbri</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 18:07:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://biasandbelief.wordpress.com/?p=158#comment-90</guid>
		<description>Interesting contrast here - 

&quot;6. Talking about an emotion decreases the impact of that emotion. You can use this asymmetrically: when having a good time, don’t analyse why but when you have unpleasant feelings, put them into words. Do this by taking to a close friend or even just writing a diary.

7. Ruminating on an emotion doesn’t decrease its impact: going over an unpleasant event in your mind just means more unpleasantness.&quot;

Wondering what the experimentolgists have to say on the dividing line here.

More than once, I&#039;ve had a crappy day, been quite upset for apparently no reason. Then I made a list in my head of 10-20 &quot;little&quot; things which all added up to be - taken together - rather overwhelming. You might file this under &quot;ruminating&quot; but it&#039;s basically the same process as writing things down. But with less evidence left lying around :)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Interesting contrast here &#8211; </p>
<p>&#8220;6. Talking about an emotion decreases the impact of that emotion. You can use this asymmetrically: when having a good time, don’t analyse why but when you have unpleasant feelings, put them into words. Do this by taking to a close friend or even just writing a diary.</p>
<p>7. Ruminating on an emotion doesn’t decrease its impact: going over an unpleasant event in your mind just means more unpleasantness.&#8221;</p>
<p>Wondering what the experimentolgists have to say on the dividing line here.</p>
<p>More than once, I&#8217;ve had a crappy day, been quite upset for apparently no reason. Then I made a list in my head of 10-20 &#8220;little&#8221; things which all added up to be &#8211; taken together &#8211; rather overwhelming. You might file this under &#8220;ruminating&#8221; but it&#8217;s basically the same process as writing things down. But with less evidence left lying around <img src='http://s.wordpress.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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